I think most people find it non intuitive that all those various papers are just averages so indeed if the only biomarker you know about a person is its LDL you can compute that, on average, a higher LDL is correlated with an higher CVD risk but that correlation is rather weak and the confidence interval is huge especially for high LDL.
We have to remind ourselves that most people are not well metabolically. For instance LDL obsessed people always point out that the all cause mortality is up for low LDL because a lot of very sick people have low LDL. Thatās probably true but they also never say that the very same argument is equally true for high LDL. People who are metabolically unwell have high LDL (and TG and low HDL, etc.) and this also increases the all cause mortality.
This begs the question of how an individual can position himself on that curve which is where the multidimensionality curse comes into play. As soon as there more than one dimension rather than just one like LDL, itās pretty easy to be an outlier and fall outside of the simple statistics.
For instance letās take a few other biomarkers like HDL, TG, BP and HbA1C and letās say we managed to be in the optimal 10% for each one. Letās also assume they are not correlated for now so that we can compute the probabilities.
The probability of having 2 of those in the optimal 10% will be 1%. This alone positions you outside if the 95% confidence interval. 3 markers in the top 10% will be 0.1% and 4 markers will be 0.01%.
Now how many studies will work on a 0.01% subpopulation? Not a lot and certainly not the large LDL ones.
There are a few though, like the one on LMHR (Lean Mass Hyper Responders) who exclusively looked at people who have LDL > 200, HDL > 80, TG < 70. I donāt remember the statistics but itās something like less than 0.01% of the population. These people have less plaque than a matched standard cohort and some of them have no plaque with an LDL of 500+.
Obviously that does not tell anything about risk vs LDL for the 99.99+% of the remaining population and this does not change that, on average, high LDL is bad for 95% of the population as shown by a lot of studies .
Now there are other subpopulations that have been studied which might be of interest here, like centenarians (results here) and, on that subgroup, normal to higher LDL is better than low LDL.
BTW on that subgroup low glucose is better though.
Note that there are other subpopulations like people with FH for instance where it has been shown that high LDL is indeed strongly correlated with bad outcomes. But again high LDL by itself is not FH.
Hopefully that thread will continue to discuss the nuances of a complex topic rather than turn into yet another LDL good/bad caricature.