A topic that comes up occasionally (especially with journalists covering rapamycin use) is the number of people using rapamycin (in the USA, and worldwide).
Given the calculations below, I think its likely that there are a total of around 18,000 to 20,000 people (in the USA) who have used rapamycin, who periodically use rapamycin, or who are currently using rapamycin regularly, and the number seems to be growing at about 300% per year.
Here is how I came to the estimate on rapamycin users for longevity:
I estimate the total from the bottom up; from the doctors who are prescribing, then extrapolate from there.
Dr. Green said he had 1500+ patients (source: his website) , and has been prescribing since 2017. He was the first to begin prescribing rapamycin off-label for longevity purposes. He was alone for a few years, but then in 2019 we started to see others starting to do it.
Other doctors and practices prescribing rapamycin:
Approx. 25 doctors/practices prescribing rapamycin (that we have on our list), for an average time of 2 to 3 years, most doctors have perhaps 150 to 200 longevity clients on rapamycin per year (from rough estimates talking with doctors).
25*150 = 3000 patients (if the average of the 25 doctors has been prescribing for 1 year) (to 6000 if theyāve been prescribing for 2 years), to 9,000 if prescribing 3 years .
Most of the doctorās weāve identified on our list have been there for two to 3 years, so Iāve used a total of perhaps 6,000 people prescribed by doctors on the list.
Total from Dr. Green and other Longevity Doctors: 7,500
Online Rapamycin Providers: 5,500
GetHealthspan and AgelessRX are online prescription/fufillment services that operate in all the US states. Its been really hard to estimate their numbersā¦but today Daniel Tawfik said in a Fox News statement that there are 3,500 rapamycin customers for GetHealthspan, and would estimate something like 2,000 for AgelessRX because they started prescribing rapamycin perhaps 6 months to a year after GetHealthspan.
Iām sure Iāve missed doctors who are prescribing - so lets say Iāve missed 10 to 20 lower visibility doctors who prescribe rapamycin occasionally to their established customers but donāt advertise it. We do hear from people frequently that theyāve managed to convince their regular doctors to prescribe rapamycin (usually functional medicine doctors).
Since they donāt advertise rapamycin prescriptions they probably have fewer patients - say 25 to 50 patients per year taking rapamycin
10*25 = 250 to 500 people per year for 2 years, so add another 500 to 1,000 people. or if there are 20 lower visibility doctors prescribing rapamycin, then 1,000 to 2,000 additional users.
Non-Identified Doctors Prescribing Rapamycin: 1500
Total for USA rapamycin users via prescriptions:
Total: 14,500
Non-Prescription Users of Rapamycin
From my survey from a few years ago, we can estimate that approximately 50% of rapamycin users are biohackers doing it without prescriptions Poll: How do you get your Rapamycin: Doctor Prescription, or Just Buy It? , but more recently the online services have become more prominent, and prices from these vendors is coming down and are now pretty competitive to online / Offshore vendors, so I suspect 75% of people in the USA now get their rapamycin from US-based providers / services, down from 2 to 3 years ago when it was 50% of users.
So this suggests another 3,000 to 4,000 or so people who are US-based biohackers getting their rapamycin directly from off-shore vendors.
Total Non-Prescription Users of Rapamycin: 3,000 to 4,000
Total USA users of Rapamycin: 17,500 to 18,500
I have no way to estimate the number of international users, but probably a few thousands, given that non-USA visitors to this website represent about 30% of the total (but its harder to get rapamycin in many countries like those in the EU).
So, the global total of rapamycin users is likely between 20,000 and 25,000 people right now, and growing quickly.
GROWTH RATE:
We can get a feeling for the growth rate of users, based on our 2022 survey of people using rapamycin, and how long they have been using it (at that time). Most people had adopted it in the past year (in 2022), and so you can look at that increase in people trying rapamycin as a āgrowth rateā.
User numbers seem to have gone up by 400% or more in 2022 (going from 14% of new users to 72%), but also more than doubled the year prior (going from 6% to 14%), and Iām sure its still growing fast given the coverage of the longevity field. Rapamycin User Survey #2 - Please Respond . I need to do another poll soon.
Drop-outs:
We might reasonably subtract at least 13% for dropouts, because of our poll described below. So perhaps the total of current people using may be reduced by 13%, or around 2,000 or 2,500 people.
Note: Our poll of our users suggests that 87% plan to keep using rapamycin, for a 13% dropout rate. You could increase that to be conservative.
