Yes, really interesting replies thank you. You make a good point that we need only commit short term to any intervention at any one point in time. My counterthought to it would be that to work, blood lipid interventions need to be long term, so Iām more drawn to experimenting with food and lifestyle rather pharma because I know that if they work Iāll find it easy and risk and worry free to continue with them indefinitely.
I think the areas of disagreement are mainly:
A. The scale of the benefit from moving to v.low from low (say apob 55 to 30). The mendelian randomization studies suggest a lifetime impact of 20-25%. Thatās obviously great but it may not be generalizable to psk9 inhibitors, and it equates to whole of life apob not middle age+ intervention. And it comes from population typical lifestyles, and I assume the % doesnāt hold for people hyperfocussed on minimizing inflammation and oxidation. And the absolute benefit will be small for those people too, even at age 90+
The risk of atherosclerosis seems fairly linear with age (not exponential), and being in the best 2% for apob (apob <55) and low inflammation/oxidation would seem to give you extremely good odds of avoiding atherosclerosis given the population level incidence.
B. Whether we should worry more about a. missing out on the potential benefit of hitting extremely low Apob or b. the potential side effects of pharma to get us there. I suspect this is highly unknowable. But I veer towards āfirst do no harmā. And Iām also sure that I would eat less well if i were on say, a psk9i, so that is an added side effect.
C. Whether we can avoid atherosclerosis risk factors into old age. I think we can, as long as we remain metabolically healthy
D. Our theoretical models for atherosclerosis probably differ too. I believe oxidation and inflammation are also necessary but not sufficient. I appreciate they canāt be targeted as well as apo b. But i think thereās a danger focussing too heavily on the things we can measure because it typically is at the detriment of the things we canāt target easily. In most multi-factoral diseases itās better to focus broadly on all risk factors rather than trying to solve the problem by targeting a single risk factor to extremes.
I suspect the main difference between us is one of biases. I have no family history of heart disease, grandparents all reached 90s or 100+, Iāve grown up on a high fibre med diet etc. So I believe my atherosclerosis risk is very small compared to other hallmarks of aging. So I feel confident in my future arterial health, less in my future kidneys, mitochondria, brain, cancer risk etc.
Some back of envelope calculations: letās assume 25% is the baseline risk of ascvd at age 75. An apo b of 55 would already put me below 5%. Plus family history, low inflammation, low oxidation and Iām well into low single digit% - reducing that risk by a further say, 10-15% with a psk9i (used only middle age +) doesnāt seem large to me - weāre talking well under 0.5% absolute benefit. Even at 90 years+ the risk reduction benefit is likely to be under 0.5%. Whereas my mitochondria and brain are more likely than not to be compromised at 90 years+ So any potential side effects which impact those, Iād love to avoid!