I’m a strong advocate of vaccination in general, but this study is like the worst nightmare for vaccine advocates.

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Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine During the 2024-2025 Respiratory Viral Season

News reports:

This year’s flu shot linked to higher flu risk in adults: Cleveland Clinic study

“To be more specific, the study also found that the vaccine effectiveness was as low as -26.9%, indicating that the vaccine had actually increased the risk of developing influenza. This is a concerning finding, especially considering the fact that the flu vaccine is widely administered every year to prevent the spread of the disease.”

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“but over the course of the study the cumulative incidence of influenza increased more rapidly among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.”
Wow!

One of the problems with flu vaccines is that they have to make a prediction of which flu viruses they want to target for an upcoming season. They often get it wrong.

Having said that, I have had annual flu vaccinations for over fifty years, and I have never had the flu.

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I don’t know what to believe anymore. However, I don’t get flues and I’m vaccinated. May be it’s a placebo effect. Knock on wood!

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Which explains why I got the flu for the first time in my life this year a few months after getting vaccinated…

The study is below.

RESULTS

A total of 53402 employees [of Cleveland Clinic] in Ohio remained after excluding 1700 subjects (3.1%) for whom age or gender were missing. These employees formed the study cohort and a total of 43857 (82.1%) were vaccinated by the end of the study. The vaccine was the inactivated 3-valent influenza vaccine in 98.7% of those vaccinated. Altogether, 1079 employees (2.02%) acquired influenza during the 25 weeks of the study. Of these, 1066 (98.8%) were influenza A infections, the remaining being influenza B infections. A total of 2740 subjects (5.13%) were censored during the study period because of termination of employment before the end of the study.

“A total of 2740 subjects (5.13%) were censored during the study period because of termination of employment before the end of the study.

Did any of the 2740 get sick or not? They were excluded because they were terminated? Still would be relevant to know if they got sick or not.

Nowhere does it say how many of the 1079 were vaccinated, versus not vaccinated. It only states the total.

Baseline characteristics

Table 1 shows the characteristics of subjects included in the study. Notably, this was a relatively young population, with a mean age of 42 years, and 75% were female. About 20% had a clinical nursing job.

Those frontliners had a greater risk. Was there greater illness among them?

Aside from the RNs, the orderlies and caregivers working with them also do bedside duties - feeding, pushing wheelchairs or beds to the OR, etc.

The results are generalizable to relatively healthy adults in the USA, which is a major target of adult influenza vaccination efforts.

What? The study population is comprised of people working in a hospital. Not exactly the majority of the US population.

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Yea, seems like an obvious confounder here is those most likely to get a flu vaccine are people that feel they are most exposed. Even within the given population (employees at a hospital), front liners are very different from back office staff. I suspect the flu vaccine was just ineffective and those with the most risk were more likely to get one, hence it appears that it made things worse.

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Well, it’s important to distinguish between the vaccine itself causing the infection, and the vaccine making you more vulnerable to infection upon exposure to the flu virus.

Anti-vaxxers tend to conflate the two, or indeed claim outright that the vaccine itself infects you. Obviously, since the vaccine works with inactivated virus and virus fragments, we don’t think the vaccine itself is what infects you with the flu, you’d need the active virus for that, and it’s not in the vaccine.

But if, IF, the conclusion of the study us correct, that getting the vaccine makes you more vulnerable to becoming infected upon exposure to the virus, then I am really struggling to understand what the mechanism might be. I think this needs to be looked into ASAP.

Incidentally, I’ve heard forever people telling me (like Antoine here!), that they never had the flu, but got it when they got the vaccine. My MIL is an example, she reported that the one time she got the vaccine, she got the flu, but never all the years without the vaccine - we both laughed ruefully, at the bad luck coincidence (she believes in vaccines), we put it all down to unconnected chance. But now I wonder.

Myself, most of my life I didn’t get the flu vaccine, because I was underwhelmed by the relatively poor effectiveness, so why bother. I wasn’t opposed to the idea, just couldn’t be bothered. But as correlations started coming out about possible protection from dementia, I started getting the flu vaccine. No flu so far. But I’m somewhat concerned, because there also seems to be research indicating that getting infected with respiratory viruses is associated increased dementia.

Hmm. Quite some dilemma. Getting the flu vaccine might cut the odds of my getting dementia. But it may also increase my odds of getting the flu, which in turn might increase my odds of getting dementia. Not a good year, I’d say. Get the vaccine, and then move to a desert island?

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Surely this is the case every year but in previous years the vaccine was effective. So unless there was a sudden change of behavior it means the study is correct.

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The CDC has classified the 2025 flu season as one of “high severity.” Even for the vaccinated, there is always a non-zero chance of contracting the virus. However, those who do get sick following an inoculation are likely to have milder symptoms and much less likely to die. The flu is no joke. About 35,000 die each year in this country alone. And sometimes the virus goes rogue and triggers a pandemic. From 1918-1920, influenza killed about 50 million people, similar to the bubonic plague in the 14th Century. And in a reversal of conventional wisdom, it killed the young and healthy at higher rates than it did the old and feeble.

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I’m not sure we’re on the same page. What I’m suggesting is that if the flu vaccine was not effective this year, more people who got it would contract the flu.

Put another way, assuming that people who are more exposed are more likely to get the flu vaccine, let’s consider two scenarios.

Effective flu vaccine: Flu vaccine recipients show a lower rate of contracting the flu despite higher exposure. People who did not get the flu vaccine show the same rate of contracting the flu.
Ineffective flu vaccine: Flu vaccine recipients show a higher rate of contracting the flu, higher than non-recipients, because they self-selected due to higher exposure. People who did not get the flu vaccine show the same rate of contracting the flu.

Notice that in the second case the reason they have a higher rate of contraction is because the flu vaccine is ineffective AND they were at higher risk (hence why they got a flu vaccine). It’s not necessarily because the flu vaccine made it more likely for them to contract the flu (eg by weakening the immune system or something)

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