Interesting… I just checked the trends on the unemployment levels in the US during this period and it aligns somewhat well with your theory…

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

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I don’t know. In general I try not to overfit data, and it’s notoriously easy to find some correlation that seems to hold up pretty well, but is in fact spurious. I mean on the face of it, it sounds more plausible than people getting increasingly fat while CVD deaths went down, until one fine morning in 2010 they all had a videoconference and established that “things have gone far enough, we’ve been fat too long, the CVD data has been moving in a contrary direction, starting tomorrow we’re dramatically increasing fatal heart attacks so at least the data fits with how bad obesity is supposed to be… c’mon everybody, the cardiologists need their chart paradoxes resolved, they can’t take it anymore!”.

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Job loss and financial ruin during the great Recession do cause a lot of stress and anxiety which is detrimental to CVD outcomes. My father lost his only job in 2009 due to forced retirement. He had worked for the same automotive company since graduating university. I also lost my job and had to move abroad in 2009. It was one of the most stressful times in my life. So, yeah, I imagine it could cause a heart attack.

Also, a lot of people lost medical insurance at that time. Fewer doctor visits and less prevention. I think the Great Recession was probably a very large contributing factor to increased CVD mortality.

(However, moving abroad was one of the best decisions in my life, and it probably wouldn’t have happened without the Great Recession. So lemonade from lemons I suppose.) :slight_smile:

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unemployment stress leads to the doctors leads to statin prescriptions leads to … :joy:

sorry, but this is still better than blaming sudden changes on gradual changes (medical care advances, obesity rates) smeared out over time.

The mechanism seems to be documented in the literature if anyone want to look into it more

From ChatGPT (have not read more than the summaries):

Here are some key studies and articles that explore the relationship between acute psychological stress and the triggering of heart attacks and strokes:

1.	Acute Psychological Stress as a Trigger for Stroke:
•	Summary: This study investigates how acute stress events can precede strokes and coronary heart disease, highlighting the role of stress as a potential trigger.
•	Link:  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32249204/


2.	Association of Psychosocial Stress With Risk of Acute Stroke:
•	Summary: This case-control study examines self-reported psychosocial stress as an independent risk factor for stroke and myocardial infarction, emphasizing the importance of stress management in cardiovascular disease prevention. 
•	Link:  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2799352?utm_source=chatgpt.com


3.	Physical, Psychological, and Chemical Triggers of Acute Cardiovascular Events:
•	Summary: This article reviews how behavioral, psychosocial, and environmental triggers can immediately increase the risk of acute cardiovascular events, including heart attacks and strokes. 
•	Link:  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2799352?utm_source=chatgpt.com

4.	Chronic Stress and Heart Disease:
•	Summary: This article discusses how chronic stress can lead to high blood pressure and other cardiovascular issues, potentially increasing the risk of heart attacks and strokes.
•	Link:  https://www.heart.org/en/news/2020/02/04/chronic-stress-can-cause-heart-trouble?utm_source=chatgpt.com

5.	Psychological Stress and Heart Disease: Fact or Folklore?:
•	Summary: This article explores the belief that severe acute psychological stress can precipitate myocardial dysfunction, infarction, arrhythmia, and cardiac death, supported by multiple reports. 
•	Link:  https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343%2822%2900137-1/fulltext?utm_source=chatgpt.com

These resources provide comprehensive insights into how acute psychological stress can act as a trigger for cardiovascular events.

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Nobody said that either. We’re better than ever at treating some forms of CVD.

I’m not trying to be an ass here, but I don’t know whether my explanation was poor, or it’s a reading comprehension issue, or you’re just looking for something which isn’t there. So I’m going to try again.

The graph is showing deaths from CVD - that would include the typical atherosclerosis → heart attack → death pathway, but also others like cardiomyopathy, HFpEF etc.

We saw a gradual decrease in CVD deaths (not cases) due to better treatment for acute MI. You have a heart attack, and your chance of surviving the next few months is greatly improved thanks to new therapies. We have reperfusion therapy. We have good drugs for secondary prevention. We have cardiac rehabilitation protocols which work. We have also made some dent in primary prevention due to better awareness and screening of lipids, blood pressure etc. Smoking rates have also been decreased. So there’s a lot of contributing factors for that fall in CVD deaths.

As you can see, deaths were falling, somewhat consistently (though the line for females is honestly pretty flat for 20 years of 1980 to 2000. Then, they seem to turn around in 2010, and people are saying “what happened in 2010?!” However, that’s the wrong question entirely. Heart attacks, strokes etc are very rare in young people - they tend to start to pick up after 40 years old, and CVD is usually a disease which takes a long time to manifest itself. So a better question is, "what happened in who were turning 40 in 2010 (i.e. those born in 1970). For that question, we have a good answer: rampant obesity and metabolic disease. which have got worse.

What we’re seeing now is the millennial generation entering the age at which they start to get sick. And it’s getting even worse because that generation grew up with even worse lifestyles, eating the majority of calories from ultra-processed foods, a huge proportion being insulin resistant. There is childhood obesity, kids with insulin resistance and hypertension in elementary school. That is giving rise to new forms of cardiovascular disease, such as HFpEF which I mentioned earlier.

Also, just bear in mind the Y axis, which is compressed and maybe a bit misleading. At the worst, the deaths (for females) are 510/1000, and the lowest was around 400/1000. It’s a 22% drop. And if you take the lowest (2010) and compare to highest (2020), it’s a 25% increase. So the difference isn’t actually as big as the graph might indicate where it looks like deaths are very low in 2010. CVD has always been the number 1 killer, by far. If you plotted the Y axis with a range of 0 to 600, those trends won’t look anywhere near as dramatic.

It’s certainly possible that it’s a contributing factor. There are hundreds of factors which would influence CVD death rates - screening guidelines, new drugs, drugs coming off patent, patient attitudes and compliance, the economy, social trends (like smoking, drugs etc), global pandemics etc. But again, I wouldn’t be looking at what happened in 2010 that suddenly caused a bunch of deaths. You want to look 20, 30, 40 years earlier.

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UK:
1742633219578648992034015029336

France:

So it’s a US problem. It’s probably not economic crises, unemployment or stress as the UK and France were equally affected.

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Yes, there is a marked difference in Cvd mortality between USA and western Europe. My money is on diet as the key differentiator between Western countries. With pharma causing downward trend everywhere.

This data shows the US has a significantly higher cvd death rate. With Italy and France significantly better the middle of the road UK
images

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On this chart, no increase in the US around 2010 (but it stayed constant while other countries kept improving):

The prevalence chart looks very different (and weird for France):

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It’s because the chart is age-standardized, so it could be because median lifespan has increased.

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Thanks. Do you have the same chart for other countries?

Yes for some, Italy seems to deviate.

UK:


France:

Italy:

(link to charts for other countries: Cardiovascular death rate: crude versus age-standardized - Our World in Data)

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Interesting. I don’t think we should underestimate that the effect on people and their families was on average extremely different though:

In the UK and France losing your job is tough, but your family still has health care, your kids can still go to good colleges (and good earlier education), there is still elder care for your parents and you’ll still be somewhat ok when you retire and so on.

In the US losing your job without being able to find a new one could often mean that your life is at least partially f*cked with respect to being able to keep your kids in good schools, help them go to college, have good health care for your family, support your aging parents and remain on a path to a decent retirement. Higher percent of Americans likely lost their homes, etc.

Also, in France and the UK peoples’ identities and lives are less equal to and centered around their careers compared to how it is in the US.

So the psychological stress, etc was almost certainly fundamentally worse and more intense for the average person and family in the US from the financial crisis, Great Recession and their wake.

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I’m skeptical. I’d like to see data. One proxy I could find is the suicide rate increase and it was actually higher in the EU vs the US (identical to Canada):

In the EU, there was a rise in the suicide rate of 6.5 % above past trends in 2009. In Canada, suicides rose by 4.5 % between 2007 and 2009. In the USA, suicides rose by 4.8 % between 2007 and 2010.
Source: Mental health outcomes in times of economic recession: a systematic literature review 2016

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Suicide is very tricky. Actually can go up when people “have more time/ability to “be depressed”” vs “fighting for their families survival”.

The data during that specific period is also difficult to understand since before the Great Recession suicides were going up in the US but down in Europe so the background noise was complex for that “natural experiment.

Still, having said that - countries with best/largest social security nets like Sweden and Austria did NOT have an increase in suicides during the Great Recession

Looking to recent history, two countries have previously broken this link: Sweden, between 1991 and 1992, and Finland, between 1990 and 1993, both experienced substantial rises in unemployment concurrent with reductions in suicide.
Reference Stuckler, Basu, Suhrcke, Coutts and McKee
1 In the present recession, Sweden again exhibited no marked increase in total suicide rates.

Economic suicides in the Great Recession in Europe and North America | The British Journal of Psychiatry | Cambridge Core?

Some other quick things from papers on the general topic

We comprehensively review empirical literature examining the relationship between the Recession and mental and physical health outcomes in developed nations.

Overall, studies reported detrimental impacts of the Recession on health

Macro- and individual-level employment- and housing-related sequelae of the Recession were associated with declining fertility and self-rated health, and increasing morbidity, psychological distress, and suicide

Health impacts were stronger among men and racial/ethnic minorities.

***Importantly, strong social safety nets in some European countries appear to have buffered those populations from negative health effects. ***

In the United State (U.S.), the Recession disproportionately impacted already marginalized populations. Non-Hispanic blacks (NHB), Hispanics, and those with less than a college education suffered disproportionately high unemployment compared to other groups, due in part to their greater representation in the hard-hit construction and manufacturing industries [7, 8]. Availability of subprime credit and discriminatory lending also led to higher foreclosure rates for NHBs and Hispanics and in poor and minority communities [9].

Exposure to labor and housing market recessionary factors may have differed substantially across nations due to social, political, or cultural differences [4].

The effect on health is thus likely to vary across countries based on demographic trends, social safety nets, and healthcare systems.

The housing crisis appears to have had a detrimental impact on mental health—above and beyond impacts related to unemployment or financial strain—particularly in the U.S.

Importantly, stronger safety nets in some European countries may have buffered their populations against negative health impacts of the economic downturn or limited the widening of inequalities, a finding with strong policy implications for the U.S. [44, 91].

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Let’s say the cause of the increased crude CVD mortality rate in the US is the 2008 crisis:

  • Why would the age-standardized rate still be declining in the US?
  • Why would the crude one still be increasing despite the crisis being over?
  • Why nothing happened during the previous recessions (2001, 1990, 1981)?

Per ChatGPT:

This graph clarifies that within age groups in the US (especially the 70+ years group), the cardiovascular death rate continues to decline steadily, even after 2010. Therefore, the increase in the crude cardiovascular death rate since 2010 cannot be explained by worsening health within specific age groups.
Instead, the rising crude death rate is primarily due to demographic shifts—specifically, a larger proportion of the population entering older age categories (70+). This demographic change leads to an overall increase in cardiovascular deaths in the general population, even though each age group’s individual risk is decreasing.

QED

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You are trying to create a straw man and say that is said something I didn’t

I just said that heart attacks and strokes while in the medium and long run are due to a whole range of important things - in the short run can be pulled forward in time by severe stress (as the Great Recession and Covid are pandemic created).

Macro version of

Heart attacks increase by ~24% on the Monday after spring daylight savings time shift compared to other Mondays.

https://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g3640

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Breathe in, breathe out, and chill out. We’re just discussing the cause of the increase of the CVD mortality crude rate and it seems that’s it’s not the economics but then… What can it be? :man_shrugging:

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I think if the entire population started taking Bempedoic Acid + Ezetimibe (BA+EZ) after the age of 30, or if their LDL was above 70 (which is probably the same cohort), we’d have a dramatic drop in cardiovascular disease the likes of which no one has ever seen before.

For some reason though, most medical systems seem to be OK with letting their populations develop CVD in their 70s, having stents and heart operations, or suffer from heart attacks and strokes. This is their ‘Normal’ outcome and why cardiovascular disease is the number 1 global killer of man.

To me, it seems that an easy daily pill of BA+EZ could be provided for everyone at a cheap cost (bulk production of 8 billion a day). Companies could make a larger profit due to volume and governments could save on costly medical treatments. Even if doctors just prescribed it to everyone over the age of 30, or for anyone with an LDL over 70, the effects would be massive. I guess it’s up to us to spread the word and take matters into our own hands. I only wish I had found out about this when I was 30. Except BA+EZ didn’t exist back then.

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