So, for males, getting the vaccine goes from a 0.0075% risk to a 0.003% risk for a total risk reduction of 0.004%.
I think the benefit may be overblown.
Especially when other interventions would probably have a much greater impact on your longevity and health.
You have a 10X higher chance of getting struck by lightning than getting this particular cancer that the vaccine prevents. Yet, people still get both.
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AnUser
#77
Source for these numbers?
The article two posts above. I just crunched the numbers. 7.5 cases of cancer per 100,000 becomes 3.4 cases per 100,000 in vaccinated individuals. 4.1/100,000 is a reduction of 0.0041%
You can also spin it as a 56% reduction. But the risk is so minuscule to begin with. A 56% reduction in the miniscule is still miniscule.
You have a 1 in 10,000 chance of getting struck by lightning during your life.
However, it makes sense to me that girls under the age of 14 should probably be vaccinated. Maybe boys too since this is sexually transmitted and young people have a lot more sexual partners nowadays. Their risk is probably greater than average.
For the people on this forum who have found a lifelong partner or aren’t (or won’t be) sexually active anymore, you probably either have the virus or you don’t at this point. Therefore this vaccine provides almost 0 value to anyone who reads this post IMHO. Except maybe parents and grandparents.
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AnUser
#79
I’m not going to calculate ‘absolute risks’ because it is related to the context, limitations, and duration of a study, none of which you have listed. About 37,000 cases of HPV cancer is in the USA every year and it is probably causing other diseases we have or have not measured yet like other infections.
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Interesting on yellow fever. I took it MANY years ago - maybe 1975? - so doubt it still has any impact or if it was even the same formula.
I’m enthusiastic about vaccines, so perhaps I’ll look into re-upping this one.
AnUser
#82
It seems to be increasing (here’s one cancer that can be caused by HPV):
Mauricio Dener Cordeiro of the Brazilian Society of Urology says the persistent infection of human papillomavirus (HPV), a name given to a common group of viruses, is “one of the main risk factors”. HPV can be transmitted during sex and in some cases, it can lead to cancers including in the mouth and penis.
He says: “Mass vaccination against HPV is essential due to its high effectiveness in preventing related lesions,” but he adds that vaccination rates in Brazil are below the level needed to be truly effective.
“In Brazil, despite the availability of the vaccine, the HPV vaccination rate remains low for girls - reaching only 57% - and for boys, it doesn’t exceed 40%,” he says. “The ideal coverage to prevent the disease is 90%.”
“Although developing countries still bear the higher incidence and mortality of penile cancer, the incidence is on the rise in most European countries,” the team of researchers led by Leiwen Fu and Tian Tian from Sun Yat-Sen University in China found.
They reported that England had seen an increase in penile cancer, rising from 1.1 to 1.3 per 100,000 between 1979 and 2009 and in Germany cases increased by 50% from 1.2 to 1.8 per 100,000 between 1961 and 2012.
These figures are only set to get higher, according to the Global Cancer Registries prediction tool. It estimates that by 2050, the global incidence of penile cancer will rise by more than 77%.
This change can largely be attributed to the ageing population, according to the experts, who say the highest incidence occurred in men in their 60s.
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Bicep
#83
I was looking for a place to put this because I think it’s important:
I think Kennedy is right about vaccines. They need a new batch of people testing the vaccines in a new way. Out with the old cult.
This is just an expression of my hesitancy.
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PBJ
#84
Article is from an ambulance chaser
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Bicep
#85
We were vaccinated and vaccinated our kids with the old vaccines. The idea that they didn’t work or caused harm never occurred. Covid changed all.
They claimed the vaccine would only work if everybody took it. Why do I need to take a vaccine to stop you from getting measles? Herd immunity. But if the vaccine works, then I should suffer measles and you should watch, smugly.
If they’re going to force vaccination then I want actual proof. It turns out that their placebo is the old vaccine. The placebo is never nothing. It’s considered immoral to actually test a vaccine. I smell a rat. Much as I hate the ambulance chasers, Kennedy included, this looks like a cult is in charge of checking whether our medicine is safe. I don’t trust them. I don’t want another vaccine as long as I live. If they fix it I may change my mind. Or I may decide to take my chances. I’m happy to let people take whatever they want for themselves. No studies necessary.
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Bicep
#87
Yes I am, but it’s new. Gotta walk the walk.
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AnUser
#88
Because not everyone can take the vaccine for measles, and breakthrough infections happen even for the vaccinated without herd immunity. It’s also children this vaccine is for, unless you haven’t been vaccinated.
So as soon as not enough children are given the measles vaccine, etc, breakthrough infections and outbreaks will start to happen for them.
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Bicep
#89
As a child I had Measles, Mumps and Rubella. Also chickenpox. How did I survive?
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AnUser
#90
You can share that if you want, but it has zero relevance.
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“The recombinant shingles vaccine is associated with a significantly lower risk of dementia in the 6 years post-vaccination”
Also implicating the potential role of herpes zoster virus
Source: x.com
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adssx
#92
Press release from April, the shingles vax is highly effective! New long-term data show Shingrix continues to provide high protection against shingles in adults aged 50 and over for more than a decade
The results from ZOSTER-049, an extension from two phase III clinical trials in adults aged 50 and over (ZOE-50 and ZOE-70), include:1
79.7% vaccine efficacy (VE) in adults aged ≥50 cumulatively within the period from year six to year 11 after vaccination (95% CI 73.7–84.6)
82.0% VE in adults ≥50 at year 11 (95% CI 63.0–92.2), showing VE remains high in each year after vaccination
73.1% VE in adults aged ≥70 cumulatively from six to 11 years after vaccination (95% CI 62.9–80.9) showing high VE rates across all age groups
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First article is mostly paywalled:
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Bicep
#94
I have to spend 20 characters telling you this is behind a paywall.
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AnUser
#95
Yeah I’m going to take that vaccine.
Vaccines probably have the best risk vs. reward calculation of any drug, supplement, or lifestyle intervention.
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A little more extensively popularized version:
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