I think reasonable people can disagree with this. Obviously we don’t have good dose/response information on rapamycin in healthy humans with regard to longevity. But I suspect we may never get this, given the problems with funding such studies and the timescales involved. So then the issue becomes “how much do we know, in what organisms, and can we may educated guesses from that data and then cautiously (with a lot of testing and monitoring) work towards acting on the best knowledge we have?”.
I would posit that some people may want to take this approach, depending on your personal risk profile, and access to testing facilities, etc.
Its not like we have zero data on this.
- We know the dose response profile of rapamycin in longevity in mice from the many ITP and other studies on this (see below).
- We have some early data from the marmoset study with approximately the equivalent to the mouse studies of 14PPM, which equates (by Adam Salmon’s estimate) to around 30mg per day (or perhaps every two days - need clarification from Adam on this, given the approx. 24 hour half-life for rapamycin in marmosets) for a typical 60kg human. This seems to be providing close to the mouse longevity benefit of 10% to 15% healthy lifespan improvement.
- If we see the same dose response for healthy longevity in mice and marmosets (e.g. 14ppm translates into a healthy lifespan benefit of around 10% to 15%, it seems that there is a reasonable chance it would also translate to humans, all things being equal).
- And, I think we may be able to measure the “failure of the dosing regiment”, by doing frequent and regular blood testing to track key variables. If they get too far out of wack, I would just the dosing level a failure. See this related thread: Ideas on Protocols for Testing Higher Rapamycin Doses
Assuming a starting level of 6mg dosing once per week, it seems like it might be feasible to slowly increase that dosing level safetly by regularly monitoring all the key blood measures that might indicate negative side effects, like LDL, APOB, blood sugar and insulin levels, and markers of immune suppression, like white blood cell levels, TREGs, etc.
I suspect that as you increase your dose past 6mg once per week that the risks increase and so more and more care is required as you increase the dose. But it does seem conceivable that a protocol could be developed to balance the risk and potential reward, at an individual level. I’m not advocating this for anyone, it just seems that there is a potential pathway forward in this area with an approach that controls the risk.
Here is the mouse dose/response data we have:
I think daily dosing in mice is roughly equivalent to about once every 4 days or so in human terms given the speed that mice metabolize rapamycin is about 4 times faster.
Sirolimus Dose |
Mouse mg/kg/day Dose |
Mouse: Blood/Sirolimus Level |
Human mg/kg/day Dose |
Dose for 60kg Human |
Daily Dose adjusted for longer half-life (/4) |
4.7ppm |
∼2.24 |
3 to 4 ng/mL |
0.182 mg/kg |
10.92 mg |
2.73 mg |
14ppm |
~6.67 |
9-16 ng/mL |
0.542 mg/kg |
32.54 mg |
8.135 mg |
42ppm |
~20 |
23-80 ng/mL |
1.626 mg/kg |
97.56 mg |
24.39 mg |
126ppm |
~60 |
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4.878 mg/kg |
292.68 mg |
73.17 mg |
378ppm |
~180 |
45 to 1800 ng/mL |
14.634 mg/kg |
878.04 mg |
218 mg |
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Sirolimus Dose |
mg/kg/day Dose |
Blood/Sirolimus Level |
Male Median LS Increase |
Female Median LS Increase |
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4.7ppm |
∼2.24 |
3 to 4 ng/mL |
3% |
16% |
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14ppm |
~6.67 |
9-16 ng/mL |
13% |
21% |
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42ppm |
~20 |
23-80 ng/mL |
23% |
26% |
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Based on the FDA animal to human dosing conversion guide here.
Note: ½ life for sirolimus in mice is approx. 15 hours, vs. approx. 62 hours in humans. So, mice metabolize sirolimus approximately 4 times faster than humans.