The population collapse panic is overdone as usual. Lower population numbers are not necessarily an automatic economic negative. GDP and wealth can continue to go up, even as the population numbers go down, so there is more wealth per capita. The graying of the population is a bigger challenge with more retirees per workers in the economy. But! As I continue to rail against straight line projections, the doomsayers are wrong again.
We live in a dynamic system. Any strong movement in one direction is liable to produce a countervailing movement changing the overall trajectory. Technology is progressing. Productivity is going up - or will accelerate - to more than cover the worker deficit and the graying of the populace won’t matter nearly as much to the economy. It will continue to grow, or if not, at least wealth per capita will. Robots, AI, and labor automation and industrialization means even elder care can be solved without increasing the number of workers per retired. As Japan is discovering, importing workers is only one - unimaginative old school - lever, and you can use other levers instead and instead of declining, you transition to a new economy that continues to serve the population better.
Mr. Malthus, please go back to your usual position in the corner and adjust your clown hat.
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Couldn’t agree more!
Alas,
If only you had been President Autopen’s immigration czar.
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Um, I actually think targeted high quality culturally compatible immigration is a huge boon. That’s what fueled America’s scientific and technological dominance. We scooped up the best and brightest minds from culturally compatible places when Europe and other places decided to get rid of their Jewish, Russian, Chinese or other bright energetic people. Their own goal, our gain. Now we are doing the own goals. Getting rid of the best and brightest, and promoting the dumb ignorant and useless, while closing the door on top talent from elsewhere, talk about reverse meritocracy. I do not think that’s a path to economic, scientific or any other kind of success, BWDIK.
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Couldn’t agree more!
Alas, if only you had been President Autopen’s immigration czar.
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RapAdmin
#497
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That’s very interesting. Looks like you definitely don’t want “other”, 
…, but seriously, covid is surprisingly up there, vaccines and all. Also diet & metabolic diseases are not as high relative to things like respiratory (smoking?) and liver (alcohol?), surprising with obesity so prevalent everywhere these days. But look at that covid 
! Unsurprisingly, most deaths are in the elderly, as it should be, short of war etc.
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Jimmy Carr at his best philosophically
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NotSure
#502
After another week teaching high school science (been doing it since 1989) I struggle with the question as whether cultural factors - phones or environmental biological factors - chemicals are causing the decline in performance in my classroom. This morning Chatgpt reinforced the biological idea. Especially after I pressed it on how long the FDA has allowed self policing by the chemical industry. The answer was 8 decades since after WW2. That is plenty of time for a great deal of harm to be done.
Reply from Chatgpt
Certainly, here’s a more comprehensive list of chemicals associated with declines in IQ over the past six decades, based on recent studies and expert analyses:
1. Flame Retardants (PBDEs)
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Use: Incorporated into furniture, electronics, textiles, and baby products.
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Impact: Prenatal exposure is linked to lower IQ and hyperactivity in children.
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Recent Findings: Between 2001 and 2016, PBDE exposure contributed to approximately 162 million lost IQ points in the U.S., surpassing lead as the leading contributor to cognitive deficits (Chemistry World).
2. Organophosphate Pesticides
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Use: Widely used in agriculture.
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Impact: Prenatal exposure is associated with reduced IQ and attention problems.
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Recent Findings: These pesticides contributed to about 17 million lost IQ points from 2001 to 2016 (Chemistry World).
3. Lead
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Use: Previously found in paints, gasoline, and plumbing.
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Impact: Known to cause developmental delays and cognitive impairments in children.
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Recent Findings: Lead exposure led to approximately 78 million lost IQ points during the same period (Chemistry World).
4. Methylmercury
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Use: Present in certain fish and industrial processes.
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Impact: Exposure can impair neurological development.
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Recent Findings: Contributed to less than 1% of the total IQ loss from these chemicals (Chemistry World).
5. Phthalates (e.g., DnBP, DiBP)
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Use: Found in personal care products, vinyl flooring, and some plastics.
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Impact: Prenatal exposure is linked to lower IQ in children.
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Recent Findings: A study found that children exposed during pregnancy to elevated levels of these chemicals had an IQ score, on average, more than six points lower than those exposed at lower levels (Mailman School of Public Health).
6. Bisphenol A (BPA)
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Use: Commonly used in plastics and resins.
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Impact: Disrupts the endocrine system and is linked to delayed brain development in children.
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Recent Findings: Studies have shown that exposure to BPA can lead to cognitive impairments and behavioral issues in children (Medindia).
7. Tetrachloroethylene (PCE)
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Use: Used in dry cleaning and as a degreaser.
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Impact: Exposure during pregnancy is associated with aggressive behavior, hyperactivity, and psychiatric problems in children.
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Recent Findings: Women working in occupations with high exposure to PCE have increased risks of having children with these behavioral issues (Medindia).
8. Fluoride
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Use: Added to drinking water and dental products.
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Impact: High levels of fluoride exposure are linked to a decrease in IQ in children.
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Recent Findings: Studies have shown that children living in areas with high levels of fluoride in drinking water have lower IQ scores compared to those in areas with lower levels (Guardian Liberty Voice).
9. Manganese
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Use: Found in drinking water and certain industrial processes.
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Impact: High levels of manganese exposure are associated with hyperactivity and low math scores in children.
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Recent Findings: Elevated manganese levels in drinking water have been linked to cognitive deficits and behavioral issues in children (Guardian Liberty Voice).
10. DDT (Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane)
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Use: Widely used as a pesticide until its ban in the 1970s.
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Impact: Prenatal exposure is associated with lower IQ and developmental delays in children.
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Recent Findings: Although banned, residues of DDT persist in the environment and continue to pose risks to children’s health (Guardian Liberty Voice).
11. Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs)
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Use: Used in electrical equipment and other industrial applications until their ban.
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Impact: Prenatal exposure is linked to reduced cognitive performance in children.
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Recent Findings: Studies have shown that children exposed to PCBs in utero have lower IQ scores and developmental delays (Guardian Liberty Voice).
12. Chlorpyrifos
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Use: An organophosphate pesticide used in agriculture.
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Impact: Prenatal exposure is associated with decreased IQ and memory by the age of 7, as well as structural changes in the brain.
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Recent Findings: Research indicates that exposure to chlorpyrifos during pregnancy can lead to significant cognitive and developmental issues in children (Guardian Liberty Voice).
13. Tetraethyllead (TEL)
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Use: Added to gasoline as an antiknock agent.
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Impact: Exposure to TEL has been linked to cognitive deficits and developmental delays.
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Recent Findings: A study calculated that exposure to car exhaust from leaded gas during childhood led to a collective loss of 824 million IQ points from over 170 million Americans alive today (ScienceDaily).
If you’re interested in strategies to minimize exposure to these chemicals, I can provide information on safer alternatives and preventive measures.
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After some study I think it is the mtDNA germline. A point I have made to the US government and the Uk government. I will press this more firmly in the UK because I have the contacts, but it is a global issue.
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