Beth
#353
As I was watching this, I was remembering a few years ago when things changed so a board of directors could be held liable.
This makes me wonder why boards are not held responsible for causing the death of an insured when their death could have been easily prevented by receiving the care they were paying for.
I assume they are somehow insulated? And if so, when other boards are no longer safe, why are theirs? It would change the industry, I would think
3 Likes
When you become a director or senior executive at a company one of the things that is included in your compensation package is insurance to cover this type of risk. Unless you are seriously negligent and directly tied to a given negative scenario then you are covered. So it hasn’t changed anything. It all comes down to “plausible deniability”.
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The problem with increasing personal liability for individuals is that it drives the people with more integrity out of the system. They don’t want to risk personal liability for day to day mistakes.
Hence the system needs to be looked at in the round.
3 Likes
LaraPo
#360
Using advanced mathematical models, the researchers estimated that the absolute limit of human life falls somewhere between 120 and 150 years . Beyond this threshold, even the healthiest individuals would lose all ability to recover from health disturbances, leading to inevitable system failure.
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Just like we’ll never make it to the moon. We will eventually be able to push past 150 years, but I’m guessing we’ll be closer to a robot than a human at that point.
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Agetron
#363
Iowa and Minnesota… long lived states - sure - but who wants to live in Iowa - Bicep (lol) or deal with Minnesota winters… nope.
What’s up with states where there is not a speck of green? Are they really unhealthy? The whole darn state? Really? Not a single tiny zone of health? Seems hardly believable. I don’t believe you can have a whole, entire state with not a speck of an area where 80 and above is the norm. Just not believable.
1 Like
AnUser
#365
That’s what obesity, saturated fat and excess sodium, drugs and alcohol do to people.
3 Likes
adssx
#366
Here’s what prediction markets expect:
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So they expect about 90y of life expectancy at birth in the US in 2050. So +11y vs 2023. It took 73y for life expectancy at birth in the US to increase by +11y (from 68y in 1950 to 79y 2023):
So markets expects 73 years of progress to be done in 27 years! Given that life expectancy at birth is a lagging KPI, that’s impressive.
Metaculus gives more conservative estimates, though:
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Markets haven’t moved much recently despite all the AGI hype 
2 Likes
Just a reminder that Hong Kong and Japan already have a life expectancy of 85 and 84 respectively. Living here, I can vouch that it’s accurate. People live longer here.
AnUser
#368
Nobody cares it seems. I just saw a YouTuber unbox a $70,000 robot on stream (Unitree G1) that he bought from a website, that means we’ll have a bunch of robots next year on the streets, and even more the years after that.
I cannot see why agents (with o7 model in ~five years), massive context sizes, multimodality, won’t accelerate all progress and produce everything needed in all areas + with physical robots.
People’s brains break with exponentials it seems and how rapid progress is after a few milestones.
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adssx
#369
Yes, it’s crazy how much the average person doesn’t understand what is going on. Here’s the number of lawyers in the US:
But prediction markets are not the average human. And they’re quite bullish on AGI:
But they seem to think that AI progress will not directly translate into life extension? (that being said, again, life expectancy is a lagging KPI)
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The life extension we have seen has come from three sources
a) Prevention of infant mortality - which really hits average lifespans.
b) Reduction of infection and.
c) Keeping frail elderly people alive.
What has not been in the figures that much is reducing age based deterioration. I am pretty certain that we are on the right track for reducing age based deterioration. My personal objective is healthspan, but that would potentially have a dramatic effect on lifespan.
3 Likes
AnUser
#371
Yes, that seems to be the case and I would believe the prediction markets as they are quite accurate (Platform calibration | Manifold), which is surprising but it seems even with lots of AGI’s can’t solve aging quickly, and it seems they don’t believe in ASI that much? (Of course, a more unlikely prediction can still be realized and the effect be larger). Makes a good case to still care a lot of about lifestyle + current drugs.
