How do we even measure the rate of aging in humans?
Great question. The most effective definition of aging I know is that it’s the exponential increase of mortality. In humans, the risk of death from all causes doubles every eight years, but mortality is a population-level trait, and we need to connect these population figures with measurements in individual organisms.
This challenge is central to the aging biomarkers field. They want to measure something in you today that correlates with the characteristics of population mortality trends. This is why we began examining longitudinal datasets that contain multiple measurements from the same person. We wanted to understand how physiological parameters change throughout a person’s life.
We couldn’t do this with nematodes, since measurements would likely kill them. So, we turned to data from mice and humans. We started with a large public Mouse Phenome Dataset and added retrospective data from Andrei Gudkov’s years of mouse aging studies. We also procured a vast human dataset from a diagnostic company in Moscow with data points from individuals who took multiple blood tests over the company’s 20-year history.
When we started comparing mice and humans, we found something intriguing: although both species show an exponential increase in mortality, the dynamics of individual markers in humans and mice are completely different. Humans are not just bigger mice.
This discovery made us revisit our theories and rethink everything. We had to face the fact that humans are very different longitudinally. In mice, we see mortality increase exponentially, but so do biomarkers of aging. This pattern of exponential codependencies is everywhere.
Markers of inflammation, such as c-reactive protein, IL-6, and others are rising exponentially in mice. So is the burden of senescent cells. The exponential rate matches the mortality acceleration. This means that mouse aging is simple: we observe an exponentially accelerating breakdown of the organism’s state.
In humans, however, we know that after the age of 40, our mortality doubles every eight years. So, we see five doublings of mortality, a total 30-fold increase between 40 and 80.
It’s clear that not all aspects of aging in humans follow an exponential pattern. Our facial features do shift with age, but not exponentially. For instance, the space between our eyes might increase, but it doesn’t multiply by fivefold by the time we’re 80. Just picture that!
If you were to chart various human characteristics over time, you would likely find two distinct patterns. Many aspects change in a straight line, getting more varied with time – showing that their change is random. Then there are those markers that change faster than a straight line – hyperbolically. If you were to extend these lines, some would reach an infinite point at around 120 years – the current maximum lifespan. Interestingly, these are the same markers that show an exponential increase in mice.
This subtle but qualitative difference (hyperbolic vs. exponential) already shows you, even without any interpretation, that aging in humans is very different from aging in mice. For instance, mice experience an exponential rise in death rates until their average lifespan, then it plateaus. But in humans, once death rates begin to rise exponentially from around 40, they keep doing so beyond the average lifespan. In simpler terms, mice and humans age quite differently, and we need a theory to explain this.