A nonlinear association of total cholesterol with all-cause and cause-specific mortality
Guo-Dong He et al. Nutr Metab (Lond). 2021.
Abstract
Background: The link between total cholesterol (TC) and all-cause and specific mortality has not been elucidated. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the effect of TC levels on all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality.
Methods: All data analyzed were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2014. The relationship between levels of TC and mortality was determined through Cox proportional hazard regression analysis coupled with multivariable adjustments. Two-piecewise linear regression models and Cox models with penalized splines were applied to explore nonlinear and irregular shape relationships. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and subgroup analyses were conducted.
Results: The sample studied comprised 14,662 men and 16,025 women, categorized as 25,429 adults aged 18-65 and 5,258 adults over 65 years old. A total of 2,570 deaths were recorded. All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality showed U-curve associations after adjusting for confounding variables in the restricted cubic spline analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause and cancer mortality were particularly negatively related to TC levels in the lower range < 200 mg/dL, especially in the range < 120 mg/dL (HR 1.97; 95% CI 1.38, 2.83, HR 2.39; 95% CI 1.21, 4.71, respectively). However, the HRs of cardiovascular disease mortality in the range < 120 mg/dL were the lowest (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.15, 2.42). In the upper range, a TC range of ≥ 280 mg/dL was correlated with mortality as a result of CVD and cancer (HR 1.31; 95% CI 0.87, 1.97 and HR 1.22; 95% CI 0.82, 1.79). The lowest cumulative survival rate of all-cause mortality was recorded in the lowest TC-level group, while the lowest cumulative survival rate of CVD mortality was recorded in the highest TC-level group.
Conclusions: A nonlinear association of TC level with all-cause, cancer, and CVD mortality in the American population was observed, suggesting that too low or too high serum total cholesterol levels might correlate with adverse outcomes.
From the full text:
“Our findings indicated that TC levels might be a critical risk factor in the general population, and TC levels < 200 mg/dL might not be indicative of good health.”
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He GD, Liu XC, Liu L, Yu YL, Chen CL, Huang JY, Lo K, Huang YQ, Feng YQ. A nonlinear association of total cholesterol with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Nutr Metab (Lond). 2021 Mar 10;18(1):25. doi: 10.1186/s12986-021-00548-1. PMID: 33691735; PMCID: PMC7945313.